Key races: race reports
The races most likely to decide control: the forecast, money and early-vote context for each. Model numbers: Catalyst v2.2 as of 2026-11-02 ANALYST; methodology.
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Urgency ANALYST = tipping-point share (scaled to the top race in its chamber) × closeness (1 − |Dem win chance − 50%| × 2), raised 25% where the Democrat trails. Ranked within each chamber; rank number is across all races.
Senate
Urgency #1
Iowa Senate
Josh Turek (D) vs Rep. Ashley Hinson (R), open seat (Ernst retiring)
48.3%Dem win ANALYST
11.0%Tipping share ANALYST
Urgency #2
Kansas Senate
Adam Hamilton (D) vs Sen. Roger Marshall (R, incumbent)
50.8%Dem win ANALYST
11.6%Tipping share ANALYST
Urgency #5
Texas Senate (open; Cornyn lost renomination)
James Talarico (open seat; former state representative) (D) vs Ken Paxton (open seat; state attorney general) (R)
60.9%Dem win ANALYST
13.0%Tipping share ANALYST
Urgency #6
Ohio Senate (special)
Sherrod Brown (challenger; former senator) (D) vs Jon Husted (appointed incumbent) (R)
65.2%Dem win ANALYST
13.5%Tipping share ANALYST
Urgency #7
Maine Senate
Troy Jackson (challenger; replacement nominee chosen 2026-07-25) (D) vs Susan Collins (incumbent) (R)
68.4%Dem win ANALYST
12.4%Tipping share ANALYST
Urgency #8
Alaska Senate
Mary Peltola (challenger; former U.S. representative) (D) vs Dan S. Sullivan (incumbent) (R)
66.8%Dem win ANALYST
10.5%Tipping share ANALYST
House
Urgency #9
Pennsylvania 10th District
Janelle Stelson (challenger) (D) vs Scott Perry (incumbent) (R)
74.5%Dem win ANALYST
3.7%Tipping share ANALYST
Urgency #10
Florida 25th District
Jared Moskowitz (D) vs Scott Singer (R)
73.4%Dem win ANALYST
3.3%Tipping share ANALYST
Analysis in progress.
Urgency #11
"Ohio's 9th District: Marcy Kaptur (D) vs Derek Merrin (R)"
Marcy Kaptur (D) vs Derek Merrin (R)
68.6%Dem win ANALYST
2.5%Tipping share ANALYST
Urgency #12
North Carolina 1st District (redrawn)
Don Davis (incumbent) (D) vs Laurie Buckhout (challenger) (R)
74.6%Dem win ANALYST
2.7%Tipping share ANALYST
Urgency #13
Pennsylvania 7th District
Bob Brooks (challenger) (D) vs Ryan Mackenzie (incumbent) (R)
82.9%Dem win ANALYST
3.7%Tipping share ANALYST
Urgency #14
North Carolina 11th District (open)
Jamie Ager (open seat) (D) vs Jennifer Balkcom (open seat) (R)
78.2%Dem win ANALYST
2.4%Tipping share ANALYST
Urgency #17
"Ohio's 1st District: Greg Landsman (D) vs Eric Conroy (R)"
Greg Landsman (D) vs Eric Conroy (R)
91.5%Dem win ANALYST
2.8%Tipping share ANALYST
Urgency #18
"Ohio's 7th District: Brian Poindexter (D) vs Max Miller (R)"
Brian Poindexter (D) vs Max Miller (R)
53.1%Dem win ANALYST
—Tipping share ANALYST
Urgency #19
Wisconsin 3rd District
Rebecca Cooke (challenger; rematch) (D) vs Derrick Van Orden (incumbent) (R)
71.2%Dem win ANALYST
—Tipping share ANALYST
Urgency #20
Michigan 7th District
William Lawrence (D) vs Rep. Tom Barrett (R, incumbent)
69.7%Dem win ANALYST
—Tipping share ANALYST
Governor
Urgency #3
Georgia Governor (open; Kemp term-limited)
Keisha Lance Bottoms (open seat) (D) vs Rick Jackson (open seat) (R)
61.1%Dem win ANALYST
14.4%Tipping share ANALYST
Urgency #4
Nevada Governor
Aaron Ford (challenger; attorney general) (D) vs Joe Lombardo (incumbent) (R)
51.8%Dem win ANALYST
11.5%Tipping share ANALYST
Urgency #15
Oregon Governor
Tina Kotek (D) vs Christine Drazan (R)
84.4%Dem win ANALYST
11.0%Tipping share ANALYST
Analysis in progress.
Urgency #16
Ohio Governor (open; DeWine term-limited)
Amy Acton (open seat) (D) vs Vivek Ramaswamy (open seat) (R)
86.6%Dem win ANALYST
10.9%Tipping share ANALYST