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Wisconsin 3rd District

Rebecca Cooke (challenger; rematch) (D) vs Derrick Van Orden (incumbent) (R) · race report as of 2026-10-28

Model Lean D on fundamentals; polling stale (May-June only)

Why this race matters

71.2%Catalyst Democratic win chance ANALYST
Lean D

89.5%House control: Democratic (Republican 10.5%) ANALYST

Catalyst forecast v2.2, as of 2026-11-02. Tipping-point share = share of simulations in which this race supplies the decisive seat. Rater consensus from published ratings. Methodology and sources.

FEC: Cooke, Rebecca (H4WI03169): receipts $12.68M, cash on hand $0.45M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.10M / against $0.00M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 5 filings, $0.16M itemized. SOURCED
FEC: Van Orden, Derrick F. Mr. (H0WI03175): receipts $9.10M, cash on hand $1.17M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.17M / against $2.03M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 6 filings, $0.09M itemized. SOURCED
CORRECTED: the 10-27 file said "Cooke −0.6 across 2 polls" and used a "trailing" framing. The current model data shows Cooke +4.2 in both polls, which are 4-5 months old. Treat the race as unpolled this fall, not as Cooke trailing.

Where it stands

Debate (10-20) and forum (10-25): clashes over the Iran war, social programs and taxes (WisPolitics, Channel 3000 headlines, UNVERIFIED).
Last 72h (headlines, UNVERIFIED): both campaigns are courting young voters (WAOW, 10-28). Dairy Herd (10-28) frames the race as a dairy farmer challenging the House Agriculture Committee vice chair. Van Orden is on a bike tour (WEAU, 10-27). Wisconsin Watch (10-26) covers the Democratic bid to win a once-moderate district.
Van Orden: WPR (10-20) headline says the Iran war makes 2026 "exponentially harder" for Republicans. The article was not read.
Money and ads: not retrieved (FEC API 429).

Uncertainties

No fall public poll. The +4 is from early-summer polls, at least one of them likely partisan.
Taxes, an issue Van Orden has emphasised, featured in the debates.
Incumbency on the Agriculture Committee (Van Orden is vice chair; Dairy Herd, 10-28) is part of the farm-issue contrast.

Sources

Every figure above is linked to its source where it appears. FEC figures: fec.gov candidate and committee filings.

Gaps

Not yet confirmed: Fall polls; Van Orden roll calls; FEC filings; article texts; ad scripts; early vote.