Georgia Governor (open; Kemp term-limited)

Keisha Lance Bottoms (open seat) (D) vs Rick Jackson (open seat) (R) · race report as of 2026-10-28

Why this race matters

Catalyst forecast v2.2, as of 2026-11-02. Tipping-point share = share of simulations in which this race supplies the decisive seat. Rater consensus from published ratings. Methodology and sources.

Early vote

• Early voters by primary-vote history: R+3.1, vs R+4.3 at the same point in the prior cycle SOURCED
• Projected electorate composition: D+2.2; early ballots for Ossoff estimated D+7 to D+12 ANALYST

Source: G. Elliott Morris, Strength In Numbers, 1 Nov (source), as of 1 Nov 2026. Caveat from the source: party registration and primary history are not vote choice, and Election Day voting usually narrows the early-vote gap. Shown for context only; these figures are not an input to the Catalyst forecast.

Where it stands

• New poll: Echelon Insights for NetChoice (Oct 16–23, n=508 LV, ±5.2): Bottoms 49, Jackson 48; 27% had already voted; 57% chose cost of living as a top priority. SOURCED

• Money (AJC, Oct 28): Jackson has put more than $200M of his own money in, including $92.5M since August ($4.5M after the Oct 20 deadline), and raised about $29M from outside donors that period. SOURCED

• Earlier poll: a poll reported by The Hill (10/21) has Jackson and Bottoms nearly tied while Ossoff leads.

• Money: Jackson, a billionaire, has massively outspent Bottoms. The AJC (10/20) reports "Democratic enthusiasm has the race knotted", and ABC (10/23) reports she has been massively outspent.

• Debates: a party chair claimed a candidate "dodged six debates" (FOX 5, 9/22); which candidate was not confirmed.

• Final week: Jackson rallied in Paulding County; Bottoms met AAPI voters (FOX 5, 10/27). PBS (10/24) says Jackson is "walking a Trump tightrope".

Campaign dynamics

1. Jackson leads heavily in paid media spending.
2. Bottoms runs behind Ossoff on the same ballot (The Hill poll). Some Ossoff voters do not yet back her.
3. No single defining issue surfaced in coverage (judgment from the headlines).

Sources

Every figure above is linked to its source where it appears. FEC figures: fec.gov candidate and committee filings.

Gaps

• Bottoms receipts/COH (state filings) and early-vote totals not yet confirmed; part of one AJC article could not be read and was not used.

• Not yet confirmed: spending figures, crosstabs, ads, campaign-site text, debate record. Sources checked: Google News RSS only.