Nevada Governor

Aaron Ford (challenger; attorney general) (D) vs Joe Lombardo (incumbent) (R) · race report as of 2026-10-28

Why this race matters

Catalyst forecast v2.2, as of 2026-11-02. Tipping-point share = share of simulations in which this race supplies the decisive seat. Rater consensus from published ratings. Methodology and sources.

Where it stands

• Polls: Noble Predictive Insights (10/6) had Lombardo up 2, in a release headlined "Lombardo Tries to Escape Trump's Orbit".

• Context: an LA Times commentary (10/25) describes an anti-Trump backlash. Ford would be Nevada's first Black governor (Nevada Current, 10/15).

• Opposition ads: Ford's past clemency votes (Nevada Independent, 10/25, "Is mercy fitting?"). A former Virginia governor touted Lombardo's education record (LV Sun, 10/24).

• Issues Ford is emphasizing: the economy, data centers and crime (FOX5, 10/20).

• Clemency facts (Nevada Independent, Oct 25): a Better Nevada PAC ad says "Aaron Ford voted to go easy on murderers, 30 times." Ford did support clemency in those 30 cases. But on 240 applications his votes matched Lombardo's (also a board member) 210 times, and Ford cast the deciding vote in only 2 of the 30. SOURCED

• Money and early vote not retrieved.

Sources

Every figure above is linked to its source where it appears. FEC figures: fec.gov candidate and committee filings.

Gaps

• Not yet confirmed: poll table, campaign finance, debates, ads, campaign-site text, early vote. Sources checked: Google News RSS only.