Texas Senate (open; Cornyn lost renomination)

James Talarico (open seat; former state representative) (D) vs Ken Paxton (open seat; state attorney general) (R) · race report as of 2026-10-28

Why this race matters

Catalyst forecast v2.2, as of 2026-11-02. Tipping-point share = share of simulations in which this race supplies the decisive seat. Rater consensus from published ratings. Methodology and sources.

• FEC: Talarico, James (S6TX00479): receipts $146.35M, cash on hand $9.92M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $4.40M / against $1.28M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 8 filings, $1.39M itemized. SOURCED

• FEC: Paxton, Warren Kenneth Jr. (S6TX00388): receipts $22.33M, cash on hand $4.78M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $1.43M / against $26.93M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 10 filings, $0.51M itemized. SOURCED

• Poll average in model: Talarico +2.2 across 67 polls. Rater consensus: Toss Up.

Early vote

• Harris County only: early electorate 2.2 points more Democratic than at the same point in the prior cycle; turnout among irregular voters: 70% of registered Democrats, 57% of registered Republicans SOURCED
• Harris County projection: D+11.9 (county, not statewide) ANALYST

Source: G. Elliott Morris, Strength In Numbers, 1 Nov (source), as of 1 Nov 2026. Caveat from the source: party registration and primary history are not vote choice, and Election Day voting usually narrows the early-vote gap. Shown for context only; these figures are not an input to the Catalyst forecast.

Where it stands

• Nomination context (Wikipedia): Paxton beat Cornyn in the May 26 runoff, 63.8%, after a late Trump endorsement. Talarico beat Jasmine Crockett in the primary, 52.4%.

• Polls: headlines over the last two weeks describe a deadlocked race. CBS (10/18) and Fox News (10/21) call it a toss-up or photo finish. FOX 7 (10/23) has Talarico leading in a new poll. UMass Lowell (10/8) has it tied. Yahoo (10/26) reports two polls that disagree. Crosstab: KERA (10/26) reports Talarico leads among Latinos and falls short among rural voters; FOX 7 (10/8) has him leading among younger voters.

• Money (FEC pre-general, through Oct 14): Talarico receipts $146.3M, cash on hand $9.92M; Paxton receipts $22.3M, cash on hand $4.78M. That is about 6.5:1 in receipts, larger than the 4:1 The Texan reported. SOURCED

• UH Hobby School poll (Oct 10–14, n=2,000 LV, ±2.9): Talarico 48, Paxton 46, Brown (L) 3, undecided 3. Independents: Talarico 60, Paxton 32. Favorability: Talarico 47, Paxton 41. SOURCED

• Early vote: Newsweek (10/27) reports record-breaking early voting. Partisan breakdown not retrieved.

• Debates: none held. Paxton has declined. Talarico did a CNN town hall alone (Axios, 10/14). Trump has said he wants a debate (PBS, 10/9).

• Closing pushes: Trump is visiting Lubbock (Kalshi News, 10/26). Abbott and Cruz are campaigning for Paxton (Dallas News, 10/26).

Sources

Every figure above is linked to its source where it appears. FEC figures: fec.gov candidate and committee filings.

Gaps

• Not yet confirmed: general-election poll table, FEC totals, independent-expenditure totals, campaign-site text, exact crosstab numbers.

• Sources checked: Wikipedia, Google News RSS, FactCheck.org.