Pennsylvania 10th District
Janelle Stelson (challenger) (D) vs Scott Perry (incumbent) (R) · race report as of 2026-10-28
Even polling; Trump approval 43/55 in the district; Stelson leads on trust
Why this race matters
Lean D
decisive seat for control
7 ratings
Catalyst forecast v2.2, as of 2026-11-02. Tipping-point share = share of simulations in which this race supplies the decisive seat. Rater consensus from published ratings. Methodology and sources.
FEC: Stelson, Janelle (H4PA10104): receipts $9.23M, cash on hand $2.07M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.15M / against $2.05M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 10 filings, $0.17M itemized. SOURCED
FEC: Perry, Scott (H2PA04135): receipts $6.79M, cash on hand $1.02M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $1.00M / against $0.86M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 7 filings, $0.13M itemized. SOURCED
Where it stands
Polls:Trump approval in the district is 43/55 (Inquirer, VERIFIED snippet). 50% say Stelson does what's best for ordinary Pennsylvanians, vs 43% for Perry (PennLive 10-27, VERIFIED snippet). RedBox (10-23) is in the model at Stelson +2.59. CORRECTED: the brief said +2.4.
Perry's ad: it alleges public nudity. WITF found that it "presents the claim without evidence… including what looks like a real legal document but is not" (WITF 10-20, VERIFIED snippet). Capital-Star calls it "misleadingly" accusing her.
New in the last 72h (headlines only, UNVERIFIED): a liberal PAC filed an ethics complaint over a campaign video Perry filmed in his congressional office (WITF/PennLive, 10-28). Perry is holding a rally with Speaker Johnson in Lower Paxton (WGAL, 10-28).
Money: the "Stelson cash advantage" claim is still headline-only. FEC not pulled (API 429).
Sources
Every figure above is linked to its source where it appears. FEC figures: fec.gov candidate and committee filings.
Gaps
Not yet confirmed: Perry roll calls; FEC filings; full article texts; ad scripts; early vote.