Ohio's 1st District: Greg Landsman (D) vs Eric Conroy (R)

Greg Landsman (D) vs Eric Conroy (R) · Report written Oct 28 · odds updated Nov 2

Landsman leads 5-9 despite a redder map; 4.5x cash edge

Why this race matters

D 91.5% · R 8.5%Catalyst win chance ANALYST
Likely D

2.8%Tipping-point share ANALYST
decisive seat for control

Likely DRater consensus SOURCED
7 ratings

89.5%House control: Democratic (Republican 10.5%) ANALYST

Catalyst forecast v2.2, as of 2026-11-02. Tipping-point share = share of simulations in which this race supplies the decisive seat. Rater consensus from published ratings. Methodology and sources.

FEC: Landsman, Greg (H2OH01194): receipts $5.66M, cash on hand $0.50M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.01M / against $1.57M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 5 filings, $0.11M itemized. SOURCED
FEC: Conroy, Eric (H6OH01138): receipts $2.37M, cash on hand $0.29M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.29M / against $0.00M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 2 filings, $0.01M itemized. SOURCED

Redistricting context (SOURCED): Ohio Redistricting Commission's Oct 31, 2025 bipartisan map made OH-1 and OH-9 more Republican; Trump would have won them by 3 and 11 pts in 2024 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Ohio, citing cleveland.com 2025-10-31).6 R seats: not re-verified this pass.

Where it stands

Polls (SOURCED): RedBox Research (D, sponsor A Fight Worth Having), Oct 20–23, 821 LV ±4.3: Landsman 48–39. Quantus Insights, Oct 19–21, 561 LV ±4.4: Landsman 47–42.
Money (SOURCED): FEC as of Sep 30: Landsman raised $5,546,090, cash $1,497,731; Conroy raised $2,208,277, cash $333,444. No AdImpact figure found.
Ratings: DDHQ Likely D (9/25), Cook Likely D (10/16), Sabato Likely D (10/20), Inside Tilt D (6/12, stale).
Debates / early vote: no district debate found; statewide early vote 1,190,464 as of 10/28 (On Point Politics tracker, secondary); no district split.

Sources

Every figure above is linked to its source where it appears. FEC figures: fec.gov candidate and committee filings.

Gaps

Not yet confirmed: AdImpact, ads and roll calls behind them, campaign homepage quotes, debates, district early vote.