Maine Senate
Troy Jackson (challenger; replacement nominee chosen 2026-07-25) (D) vs Susan Collins (incumbent) (R) · race report as of 2026-10-28
Steady 2-4 pt Jackson edge; the closing debate centres on temperament
Why this race matters
Lean D
decisive seat for control
10 ratings
Catalyst forecast v2.2, as of 2026-11-02. Tipping-point share = share of simulations in which this race supplies the decisive seat. Rater consensus from published ratings. Methodology and sources.
FEC: Jackson, Troy Dale (S6ME00464): receipts $26.87M, cash on hand $1.60M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $1.75M / against $0.04M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 6 filings, $0.94M itemized. SOURCED
FEC: Collins, Susan M. (S6ME00159): receipts $25.23M, cash on hand $2.69M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $2.86M / against $1.56M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 6 filings, $0.36M itemized. SOURCED
Where it stands
New since 10-26 (VERIFIED): Marist, Oct 22-25: Jackson 49, Collins 47 among likely voters (RV 53-44); favourability Jackson 39/49, Collins 44/53. Source: Marist PDF https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Marist-Poll_Maine-NOS-and-Tables_202610261228-3_43sjl2.pdf (2026-10-26). CORRECTED: a NewsCord roundup headline (10-27) says Jackson is "trailing by 2". The primary PDF shows him leading by 2. Echelon (Oct 16-23): Jackson 51-44, raw +7 (in the model at +7.37).
Polls (10-27 snapshot): five aggregates updated 2026-10-27 range from Jackson +1.2 to +3.0 (average 49.1–47.1, +2.0). Latest polls: Oct 22–25 LV, Jackson 49–47 (RV: 53–44); Oct 21–23, 1,077 LV, 47–47; Echelon (R), Oct 16–23, 413 LV, Jackson 51–44; Beacon(D)/Shaw(R), Oct 16–20, 1,514 LV, 49–49; InsiderAdvantage (R), Oct 13–14, 1,200 LV, Jackson 49–47. Since early October the race has been a 0–4 point Jackson edge that is not widening.
Money (FEC through 10/14, via Wikipedia): Jackson raised $26.9M and has $1.60M cash on hand. Collins raised $25.2M and has $2.69M cash on hand. Collins has more cash for the final weeks.
Context: Graham Platner won the June 9 primary, then withdrew on July 10 after sexual-assault accusations. Jackson was nominated at a convention on July 25.
Debates: a third debate (WMTW, 10/14) and a final debate (Maine Public, 10/16 takeaways). AP (10/15) reports Jackson told Collins to "shut up" during the debate.
Early vote: not retrieved.
Sources
Every figure above is linked to its source where it appears. FEC figures: fec.gov candidate and committee filings.
Gaps
Not yet confirmed: Collins roll calls; FEC primary figures and 48-hour reports; ad texts for the Democratic ads on Collins's husband; early vote.