Alaska Senate
Mary Peltola (challenger; former U.S. representative) (D) vs Dan S. Sullivan (incumbent) (R) · race report as of 2026-10-28
Why this race matters
Lean D
decisive seat for control
10 ratings
Catalyst forecast v2.2, as of 2026-11-02. Tipping-point share = share of simulations in which this race supplies the decisive seat. Rater consensus from published ratings. Methodology and sources.
FEC: Peltola, Mary (S6AK00276): receipts $36.89M, cash on hand $4.10M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.45M / against $3.04M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 4 filings, $0.63M itemized. SOURCED
FEC: Sullivan, Dan (S4AK00214): receipts $14.11M, cash on hand $2.84M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $1.58M / against $2.49M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 10 filings, $0.19M itemized. SOURCED
The model has no polls taken after the spoiler report, so it does not yet reflect it.
Where it stands
Spoiler report (10-28, VERIFIED via Alaska Public Media):Sullivan of Petersburg and other would-be spoilers to dilute the incumbent's vote.A fired campaign manager, Elisa Rios, is quoted. Alaska Public Media notes it has not independently confirmed the reporting.
The campaign's response: "no involvement with either Sullivan campaign" (APM). It did not say whether Peltola herself was involved. The campaign and the DSCC denied the report to the Times but did not answer its detailed questions.
Reaction: Trump said Peltola "should suffer the Legal and Political consequences" and should be removed from the ballot. Murkowski cited "a pattern of lies and coverups". The RNC says coordination with a super PAC would be a campaign finance violation (an allegation). Former state elections attorney Bakalar: "Not a single illegal thing happened here."
DOJ suit (VERIFIED via APM): seeks to block certification if Sullivan loses by less than the Petersburg Sullivan's vote total. A ruling on motions to dismiss could come as soon as Friday 10-30.
Ranked choice: voters who rank both Sullivans see their vote transfer, which limits spoiler confusion (APM).
Money and early vote: not retrieved (FEC API rate-limited).
Sources
Every figure above is linked to its source where it appears. FEC figures: fec.gov candidate and committee filings.
Gaps
Not yet confirmed: Sullivan roll calls; FEC figures; post-report polls; early vote; ad texts.