Michigan 7th District

William Lawrence (D) vs Rep. Tom Barrett (R, incumbent) · Report written Oct 28 · odds updated Nov 2

Lawrence leads thin polling in a Trump+1 seat; Livingston margins decide it.

Why this race matters

D 69.7% · R 30.3%Catalyst win chance ANALYST
Lean D

89.5%House control: Democratic (Republican 10.5%) ANALYST

Catalyst forecast v2.2, as of 2026-11-02. Tipping-point share = share of simulations in which this race supplies the decisive seat. Rater consensus from published ratings. Methodology and sources.

FEC: Thomas More (H2MI07123): receipts $8.24M, cash on hand $1.04M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.23M / against $2.08M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 6 filings, $0.15M itemized. SOURCED
FEC: Lawrence, William (H6MI07298): receipts $4.16M, cash on hand $0.63M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.83M / against $3.73M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 10 filings, $0.24M itemized. SOURCED

A Republican-held seat that the model rates Lean D.

Where it stands

Ad spending tops $61M, the most of any House race in the country (WKAR, Oct 21). SOURCED
District: Ingham, Clinton, Shiawassee and Livingston counties, plus parts of Eaton, Genesee and Oakland (WKAR, Oct 27). SOURCED
Money (FEC receipts and cash on hand) not retrieved: FEC DEMO_KEY rate limit.

Campaign dynamics

Thin polling. Only 3 polls; the lead could be noise.
Livingston County. Barrett ran about 10.5 points better there in 2024 than in 2022 (WKAR); the county margin is a key indicator.
Ad saturation. At $61M+, both candidates complain about the ad volume (WKAR).

Sources

Every figure above is linked to its source where it appears. FEC figures: fec.gov candidate and committee filings.

Gaps

FEC figures, Barrett roll-call votes, the campaign homepages and the poll details behind the 3-poll average were not yet confirmed.