North Carolina 1st District (redrawn)

Don Davis (incumbent) (D) vs Laurie Buckhout (challenger) (R) · race report as of 2026-10-28

Narrowing poll lead on Republican-drawn lines; Vance rallying Republican voters

Why this race matters

Catalyst forecast v2.2, as of 2026-11-02. Tipping-point share = share of simulations in which this race supplies the decisive seat. Rater consensus from published ratings. Methodology and sources.

• FEC: Davis, Don (H2NC02287): receipts $5.81M, cash on hand $0.83M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.43M / against $3.91M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 5 filings, $0.09M itemized. SOURCED

• FEC: Buckhout, Laurie (H4NC01137): receipts $4.79M, cash on hand $1.44M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.83M / against $2.81M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 4 filings, $0.12M itemized. SOURCED

Where it stands

• Polls: GQR +9.3 (10-04), Neighborhood +10.9 (10-06), co/efficient −1.2 (10-08), RedBox +2.0 (10-23) (viz_data, VERIFIED).

• Locker-room ads: WAVY (10-09) reported that Davis "failed to vote" on the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act. CORRECTED: the House roll call shows Davis voted Present on H.R. 28, "On Passage", roll no. 12, 14 Jan 2025 (https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2025/roll012.xml). He was the only Democrat voting Present. WAVY's 10-26 follow-up on both sides' ads returned 403; verdict not read.

• Last 72h (headlines, UNVERIFIED): Vance rally in Kinston 10-28 (NC Newsline, Neuse News); The Assembly, "Don Davis Tests His New Boundaries" (10-27); AOL/N&O: one of the most expensive House races (10-27).

• Money: "Davis outraised Buckhout" is still headline-only; FEC 429.

Sources

Every figure above is linked to its source where it appears. FEC figures: fec.gov candidate and committee filings.

Gaps

• Not yet confirmed: FEC filings; WAVY 10-26 verdict; N&O California-cash verdict; ad scripts; Davis's other roll calls; early vote.