Kansas Senate

Adam Hamilton (D) vs Sen. Roger Marshall (R, incumbent) · race report as of 2026-10-28

Hamilton leads in money, among independents and in the early vote; Marshall leads among voters 65+ and non-college voters, and his church-camp ad has shaped coverage. Rated Tilt R.

Why this race matters

Catalyst forecast v2.2, as of 2026-11-02. Tipping-point share = share of simulations in which this race supplies the decisive seat. Rater consensus from published ratings. Methodology and sources.

• FEC: Hamilton, Adam (S6KS00312): receipts $19.18M, cash on hand $2.87M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.00M / against $0.00M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 6 filings, $1.01M itemized. SOURCED

• FEC: Marshall, Roger W (S0KS00315): receipts $7.55M, cash on hand $0.81M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.28M / against $0.00M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 5 filings, $0.21M itemized. SOURCED

A Republican-held seat now competitive. Marshall himself says "control of the Senate goes through Kansas."

Where it stands

• Recent polls are close: InsiderAdvantage (Oct 9–10) Hamilton 47.5, Marshall 46.7; RedBox (Oct 20–23) Marshall 45.7, Hamilton 45.SOURCED

• Money: about $54.2M benefiting Hamilton vs $31.0M benefiting Marshall, campaign plus outside spending. Hamilton raised $19.2M. SOURCED

• Early vote: more than 200,000 ballots cast; no party split published. RedBox: already-voted Hamilton 58–36, not-yet-voted Marshall 49–40. SOURCED

• RedBox crosstabs: independents Hamilton 58–23; 65+ Marshall 56–38; white non-college Marshall 55–35. SOURCED

Campaign dynamics

1. The church-camp ad. Marshall's ad accusing Hamilton over a 2005 church-camp abuse case has true elements (the predator was at the camp, and was later convicted) and a FALSE central charge.
2. Age and education split. Marshall leads among voters 65+ (56–38) and white non-college voters (55–35); Hamilton leads among independents (58–23) (RedBox).
3. Voted vs. not yet voted. Voters who have already voted favour Hamilton (58–36); those who have not yet voted favour Marshall (49–40) (RedBox).

Sources

Every figure above is linked to its source where it appears. FEC figures: fec.gov candidate and committee filings.

Gaps

• No source ties Kansas rural-hospital risk specifically to H.R. 1.

• No party split for the Kansas early vote.

• "87% TV/radio" figure not confirmed.

• AdImpact dollar figures and Meta/Google ad-library data not yet confirmed.

• No rural/urban poll banner published.