North Carolina 11th District (open)
Jamie Ager (open seat) (D) vs Jennifer Balkcom (open seat) (R) · race report as of 2026-10-28
Solid poll lead; a Republican ad using AI-generated video drew an N&O fact check
Why this race matters
Lean D
decisive seat for control
7 ratings
Catalyst forecast v2.2, as of 2026-11-02. Tipping-point share = share of simulations in which this race supplies the decisive seat. Rater consensus from published ratings. Methodology and sources.
FEC: Ager, Jamie (H6NC11248): receipts $5.87M, cash on hand $0.62M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.32M / against $0.00M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 6 filings, $0.12M itemized. SOURCED
FEC: Balkcom, Jennifer (H6NC11321): receipts $0.40M, cash on hand $0.29M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.00M / against $1.77M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: none found. SOURCED
Where it stands
AI ad (VERIFIED): the N&O fact check (10-24) says Balkcom's ad features "videos generated by artificial intelligence that depict her opponent, Democrat Jamie Ager, dancing with a drag queen in a barn" (https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article317751858.html). Balkcom's campaign told WLOS the ad "was produced in coordination with the campaign", and the N&O found it reworks footage from an Ager ad (Gayety, 10-27, citing WLOS and the N&O, VERIFIED snippet). This settles the 10-27 open question: the ad was coordinated with the campaign, not run by an outside group.
Ager's response: "100% fake", "bullcrap" (WLOS headline, 10-27, UNVERIFIED). A drag performer's attorney says legal action is possible (WLOS, 10-26, headline).
Voter concerns: cost of living and health care (Cardinal & Pine headline, 10-27).
Money: "Ager well outpaces Balkcom" (Carolina Journal headline, 10-16). FEC 429.
Sources
Every figure above is linked to its source where it appears. FEC figures: fec.gov candidate and committee filings.
Gaps
Not yet confirmed: FEC filings; full article texts; Balkcom's ad buy size; early vote.