Ohio's 9th District: Marcy Kaptur (D) vs Derek Merrin (R)

Marcy Kaptur (D) vs Derek Merrin (R) · race report as of 2026-10-28

Kaptur +6 in a Democratic-sponsored poll on a Trump+11 seat; on the tipping-point list

Why this race matters

Catalyst forecast v2.2, as of 2026-11-02. Tipping-point share = share of simulations in which this race supplies the decisive seat. Rater consensus from published ratings. Methodology and sources.

• FEC: Kaptur, Marcy Hon. M.C. (H2OH09031): receipts $5.91M, cash on hand $0.70M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.30M / against $2.91M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 9 filings, $0.15M itemized. SOURCED

• FEC: Merrin, Derek (H4OH09169): receipts $2.22M, cash on hand $0.45M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.04M / against $1.74M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 6 filings, $0.04M itemized. SOURCED

Redistricting context (SOURCED): Ohio Redistricting Commission's Oct 31, 2025 bipartisan map made OH-1 and OH-9 more Republican; Trump would have won them by 3 and 11 pts in 2024 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Ohio, citing cleveland.com 2025-10-31).6 R seats: not re-verified this pass.

Where it stands

• Polls (SOURCED): RedBox Research (D), Oct 20–23, LV ±4.5: Kaptur 49–43.

• Money (SOURCED): FEC as of Oct 14: Kaptur raised $5,910,481, cash $697,508; Merrin raised $2,217,821, cash $449,466. No AdImpact figure found.

• Ratings: Not retrieved this pass.

• Debates / early vote: no district debate found; statewide early vote 1,190,464 as of 10/28 (On Point Politics tracker, secondary); no district split.

Sources

Every figure above is linked to its source where it appears. FEC figures: fec.gov candidate and committee filings.

Gaps

• Not yet confirmed: AdImpact, ads and roll calls behind them, campaign homepage quotes, debates, district early vote.