Iowa Senate

Josh Turek (D) vs Rep. Ashley Hinson (R), open seat (Ernst retiring) · race report as of 2026-10-28

Turek leads in money and the early vote; the last three pollsters show Hinson ahead. Hinson has publicly differed with Trump on the Iran war and the beef-tariff suspension.

Why this race matters

Catalyst forecast v2.2, as of 2026-11-02. Tipping-point share = share of simulations in which this race supplies the decisive seat. Rater consensus from published ratings. Methodology and sources.

• FEC: Turek, Joshua (S6IA00298): receipts $24.29M, cash on hand $3.07M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $9.86M / against $0.47M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 8 filings, $0.69M itemized. SOURCED

• FEC: Arenholz, Ashley Hinson (S6IA00314): receipts $14.15M, cash on hand $2.17M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $4.32M / against $10.32M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 8 filings, $0.53M itemized. SOURCED

An open Republican seat that the model rates a toss-up. It is one of the races most likely to decide Senate control.

Where it stands

• Cash on hand at pre-general (Oct 14): Turek $3.07M, Hinson $2.17M. SOURCED

• The last three pollsters show Hinson ahead: Trafalgar (Oct 13–15) R+2.2, co/efficient (Oct 15–19) R+3.2, InsiderAdvantage (Oct 21–22) R+2.2. GS Strategy (Oct 13) had D+2.2. SOURCED

• Money is at rough parity: about $97M on the Turek side vs about $95M on the Hinson side, campaign plus outside spending. Anti-Turek outside spending ($65.0M) is the largest single pot. SOURCED

• Early vote favours Democrats: 125,287 ballots by Oct 21, Democratic ballots up 29% vs 2022, Republican up 18%; 265,803 ballots by Oct 24. SOURCED

• Age split (Emerson): over-50 voters Hinson +13, under-50 voters Turek +14. Trump approval in Iowa 42/51. SOURCED

Campaign dynamics

1. Hinson’s positioning. She calls for the Iran war to end and criticises the beef-tariff suspension, while her site leads with "Standing with President Trump."
2. Age split. Hinson leads among voters over 50 (Emerson +13; Trafalgar 65+ by about 10); Turek leads among voters under 50 (Emerson +14).
3. Late ad controversy. Turek’s "Stop the Nonsense" ad (Oct 25) drew criticism from One Iowa Action and from Republicans in the final week.

Sources

Every figure above is linked to its source where it appears. FEC figures: fec.gov candidate and committee filings.

Gaps

• Turek's tax-cut vote: no bill number or year found.

• Six Iran roll calls are verified; "seven times" is not.

• Independent, rural/urban and education crosstabs for the October polls were not found.

• No Selzer/Register poll found this cycle.

• Meta and Google ad-library figures, and AdImpact dollar amounts, not yet confirmed.

• The Oct 13 final debate rests on a single outlet.