Ohio Senate (special)
Sherrod Brown (challenger; former senator) (D) vs Jon Husted (appointed incumbent) (R) · race report as of 2026-10-28
Steady Brown +3 lead and a money edge; HB6 is a central campaign issue
Why this race matters
Tilt D
decisive seat for control
10 ratings
Catalyst forecast v2.2, as of 2026-11-02. Tipping-point share = share of simulations in which this race supplies the decisive seat. Rater consensus from published ratings. Methodology and sources.
FEC: Brown, Sherrod (S6OH00163): receipts $68.41M, cash on hand $4.45M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $24.58M / against $119.25M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 5 filings, $0.86M itemized. SOURCED
FEC: Husted, Jon (S6OH00304): receipts $19.89M, cash on hand $4.24M (through 2026-10-22); outside spending for $5.11M / against $1.15M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 12 filings, $0.52M itemized. SOURCED
Poll average in model: Brown +4.3 across 40 polls. Rater consensus: Toss Up (10 ratings).
Where it stands
Polls: published aggregates updated 2026-10-25 all show Brown ahead: 270toWin +4.0, DDHQ +4.2, FiftyPlusOne +4.2, RCP +3.3, Silver Bulletin +3.4 (Wikipedia table). Recent polls: Beacon(D)/Shaw(R) for Fox, Oct 15–19, 1,592 LV, Brown 52–47; GS Strategy(R)/New River(D), Oct 9–13, 959 LV, 49–43; InsiderAdvantage(R), Oct 21–22, 1,200 LV, 47–44; RedBox(D), Oct 20–23, 47–44; Echelon(R), Oct 16–23, 508 LV, 47–47; ActiVote, 400 LV, 50–50; one Oct 12–14 poll (901 LV) had Husted 49–47. The trend is a steady Brown lead of 3–4 points; the three tied or Husted-led results are all small or R-sponsored samples.
Money (FEC, through 2026-10-14, via Wikipedia): Brown raised $68.4M, spent $64.0M, $4.45M cash on hand. Husted raised $19.9M, spent $15.7M, $4.24M cash on hand. Reuters (2026-09-21) reports Trump-linked "pop-up" PACs running ads against Brown. Independent-expenditure totals were not pulled.
Early vote (SOURCED, secondary): 1,190,464 ballots cast statewide as of 10/28 (491,261 mail returned, 699,203 in person) per On Point Politics tracker citing the SOS dashboard; Dispatch (10/24) reported 1,240,470 early ballots issued as of 10/23. No party breakdown (Ohio has no party registration). Primary SOS site was in maintenance (403) on 10/28.
New polls (since 10/26): Suffolk, Oct 21–26, 500 LV ±4.4, Brown 47–44 (D+3). Aggregates 10/28: 270toWin +3.5, DDHQ +3.4, 50+1 +3.3, RCP +3.3, Silver +3.1 (10/27) — slightly tighter than 10/25.
Sources
Every figure above is linked to its source where it appears. FEC figures: fec.gov candidate and committee filings.
Gaps
Not yet confirmed: AdImpact totals, Husted roll calls, the text of campaign-site homepages (sherrodbrown.com, husted.com), debate dates and exchanges, poll crosstabs, independent-expenditure totals, early vote.
Sources checked: Google News RSS, Wikipedia, FactCheck.org, Axios, senate.gov.