Catalyst · 2026 general election · Tue Nov 3
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Who controls Congress
and the statehouses?

The forecast, the odds through election night, and the maps, money and races behind them.
70 / 30
Senate control · D / R % MODELED
86 / 14
House control · D / R % MODELED
78 / 13
Governor majority · D / R % (25–25 tie 9%) ANALYST
25
County race maps
21
Race reports
Forecast numbers: Catalyst forecast v2.2, data as of 2026-11-02 ANALYST
Open the forecastElection-night odds →
Explore

Nine ways into the 2026 election.

Forecast page: Senate, House and governor control chances and the four possible control outcomes
01 · FORECAST

Forecast

Catalyst v2.2 odds for Senate, House and governor control, combining published ratings, models and markets race by race.

MODELEDSOURCED
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Line charts of Senate and House control odds over time, with market prices and dated news markers
02 · TRENDS OVER TIME

Trends over time

Senate and House control odds through election night, with Kalshi and Polymarket prices since Jan 1 and dated news markers.

MODELEDMARKET
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Charts of how the Catalyst forecast has moved version by version, with seat distributions and market prices
03 · FORECAST HISTORY

Forecast history

How the Catalyst forecast has moved, version by version, next to market prices and other forecasters.

ANALYSTMARKET
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US map of the Senate races by state, shaded by rating, beside the race list
04 · US MAPS

US Maps

All 35 Senate, 435 House and 36 governor races on national maps: ratings, market odds and official counts.

ACTUALMARKETMODELED
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Four county results maps: California governor, Texas Senate, Pennsylvania 1st District and Michigan Senate
05 · COUNTY MAPS

County Maps

25 county-level race maps: 10 California statewide contests plus 15 Senate and House races that could decide control.

ACTUALMODELED
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Donor totals and a chart of the top 50 donors to 2026 races, checked against FEC filings
06 · MONEY BEHIND THE RACES

Money Behind the Races

The biggest 2026 donors, checked against itemized FEC receipts, and where the money went.

SOURCED
Follow the money →
Redistricting page: seat-shift summary and a bar chart of the 2025–26 redraws by state
07 · REDISTRICTING

Redistricting

The 2025–26 mid-decade redraws: old and new district lines, seat shifts and what changed for voters.

SOURCEDANALYST
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Grid of race report cards in competitiveness order, each with win chance and tipping-point share
08 · RACE REPORTS

Race Reports

21 key races: where each stands, FEC money, polls and early-vote context, ordered by competitiveness.

MODELEDSOURCED
Open the race reports →
Methodology page: the Catalyst v2.2 forecast summary for Senate, House and governorships
09 · METHODOLOGY

Methodology

Every forecaster in one ledger: the sources, how they are scored and combined, and the backtest.

MODELED
Read the methodology →
How to read the labels. ACTUAL official counts or published figures. MARKET traded prices on Kalshi and Polymarket (prices, not model probabilities; shown with attribution). MODELED the Catalyst board estimate: one probability per race (official counts once votes are counted; before that the market average, else the race rating) combined with a one-factor correlation (ρ 0.2), with a ρ 0–0.5 sensitivity range. A race is PROJECTED only at p ≥ 0.99 with at least 40% of the expected vote counted (LEANING at p ≥ 0.80). ANALYST the published Catalyst forecast. UNVERIFIED figures not yet confirmed against a primary source. Nothing is interpolated: gaps in the data are shown as gaps. MODELED odds are not race calls, and no outlet's race calls are used.
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