Catalyst · odds over time2026 · General Tue Nov 3

How the odds move · 2026 to election night

MODELED (thick) · MARKET since Jan 1 (thin) · seats PROJECTED

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MODELED, not a call · per-race probabilities (votes, else markets, else rating) + correlation ρ 0.2 · seats PROJECTED at p ≥ 0.99 with ≥ 40% in · no race calls ingested · MARKET prices: Kalshi, PolymarketY Q M W E ranges · ←→ pan · +/− zoom · B/S/H · 1/2/3

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