The gerrymander map of 2026
Since August 2025, fifteen states have tried to redraw their U.S. House maps in the middle of the decade, or had them redrawn by a court. Nine new maps are in force for Nov. 3. We set out each redraw, compare the district lines before and after, and measure what the redraws did to voters.
Every number carries one label. SOURCED = taken from a published source (linked). ANALYST = Catalyst calculation or model, method stated. GAP = we do not have reliable data and show none. Hover or tap any chart for detail.
2 The 2025–26 redistricting war, state by state
The fight began in Texas in August 2025 at the President’s urging. California answered with Prop 50. After the Supreme Court’s Louisiana v. Callais ruling on April 29, 2026 narrowed Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, three Southern states took apart Black-opportunity districts within weeks.
The waterfall adds up the seat shift each in-force map was designed to produce. That is drawers’ intent, not a forecast: in a strong Democratic year, some “safe” new seats can still flip.
Drawer, method, legal status and designed shift: SOURCED Wikipedia redistricting tracker (compiles official actions and rulings), as of 2026-10-28. 2024 delegation: SOURCED certified 2024 results. “Designed shift” is the change in seats the map targets, not the outcome.
3 Before and after: the district lines
Real boundaries only, from Census and state-legislature shapefiles (sources under each map). New-map districts are shaded by Catalyst’s Nov. 3 win probability where our forecast rates the race (ANALYST, as of ); grey districts are ones the forecast treats as not in play. Where we could not obtain an official shapefile for a new map, we leave the panel blank and say so.
4 What it takes to win the House now
The median district decides the majority. Under the 2024 lines it was Arizona’s 1st, which Trump won by 3.1 points. Under the 2026 lines it is Wisconsin’s 1st, which he won by 4.5 (The Downballot). Nationally he won by 1.5.
Under a uniform swing, Democrats would need to win the national House vote by roughly the median district’s lean relative to the nation. That is about 1.6 points on the old lines and 3.0 points on the new ones. The bar Democrats must clear has risen by about 1.4 points.
Not every source agrees. Sabato’s Crystal Ball put the 2026 median at Trump +4.9, but concludes the overall bias is still no worse than in 2018. A full seats-votes curve would need 2024 results for every new district, which we have not verified. That curve is marked as a gap.
5 What it does to voters
Districts hold nearly equal populations, so the share of districts is also roughly the share of Americans. Going into Nov. 3, 44% of districts sit in states whose map was drawn to help Republicans, and 26% in states whose map was drawn to help Democrats (The Downballot).
The redraws removed a net 13 competitive districts (seats decided by under 10 points in 2024). Each one is a community whose general-election vote mattered and now mostly doesn’t.
Minority representation took the most targeted blow. After Callais, Tennessee split Black-majority Memphis (TN-9), Louisiana dismantled its second Black-majority seat (LA-6), and Alabama redrew the court-ordered AL-2. North Carolina’s map also targets NC-1, about 40% Black.
GAP How many voters were moved between districts nationally: no published, verified count yet. We will add it once one exists.
Our forecast in the redrawn states
Catalyst’s House forecast gives Democrats a chance of the majority, with a median of seats (ANALYST). Below are the rated races in states with new maps. Several seats Republicans drew to win are still rated competitive or better for Democrats in this environment. Their gerrymanders matter most in a neutral or Republican year.
Sources and method
Geometry: Census cartographic boundary files (2024 lines) and the official state shapefiles listed under each map. Basemap: U.S. Census via us-atlas. All charts are drawn in your browser from data.json, which carries a label, source and as-of date for every value.