Catalyst · 2026 general election · Tue Nov 3

Forecast and odds over time

Senate, House and governor maps, 25 county race maps, and how the odds and the forecast have moved

US maps

ACTUALMARKETMODELED
All 35 Senate, 435 House and 36 governor races on three national maps: ratings, Kalshi / Polymarket odds, and official counts where a free state feed exists. Separate Senate, House and Governor pages zoom to every state and district.

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County race maps

ACTUALMODELED
25 county-level maps: 10 California statewide races and propositions, plus 15 Senate and House races that could decide control. Prior results, pre-election model layers and live official counts.

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Odds over time

MODELEDMARKET
Senate and House control odds as results come in, with Kalshi and Polymarket chamber-control prices since Jan 1. Ranges: All 2026, 3 months, 1 month, 1 week, and an Election Day zoom.

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Forecast

MODELEDSOURCED
The Catalyst v2.2 forecast for Senate, House and governor control, race by race, with every published rating and model it combines.

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Race reports

MODELEDSOURCED
21 key races: where each stands, FEC money, polls and early-vote context, ordered by how likely the race is to decide control.

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Methodology

MODELED
Who wins in 2026? Every forecaster, one ledger: the sources, how they are scored and combined, and the backtest.

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Redistricting

SOURCEDANALYST
The 2025–26 mid-decade redraws: old and new district lines, seat shifts and what the redraws did to voters.

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Money

SOURCED
The biggest 2026 donors, checked against itemised FEC receipts, and where the money went.

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How the forecast has moved

ANALYSTMARKET
Trend cards for Senate, House and governors: Catalyst forecast versions, market prices, other forecasters, seat distributions and per-race daily trends.

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How to read the labels. ACTUAL official counts or published figures. MARKET traded prices on Kalshi and Polymarket (prices, not model probabilities; shown with attribution). MODELED the Catalyst board estimate: one probability per race (official counts once votes are counted; before that the market average, else the race rating) combined with a one-factor correlation (ρ 0.2), with a ρ 0–0.5 sensitivity range. A race is PROJECTED only at p ≥ 0.99 with at least 40% of the expected vote counted (LEANING at p ≥ 0.80). ANALYST the published Catalyst forecast. UNVERIFIED figures not yet confirmed against a primary source. Nothing is interpolated: gaps in the data are shown as gaps. MODELED odds are not race calls, and no outlet's race calls are used.

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