North Carolina Senate

Forecast summary and early-vote context.

View NC-SEN chart on the forecast

D 97.0% · R 3.0%Catalyst win chance ANALYST
Safe D
68.3%Senate control: Democratic (Republican 31.7%) ANALYST

Catalyst forecast v2.2, as of 2026-11-02. Tipping-point share = share of simulations in which this race supplies the decisive seat. Rater consensus from published ratings. Methodology and sources.

Early vote

  • Early in-person voters by party registration: 38.3% registered Democrats, 26.4% registered Republicans (D+11.9); same point in 2024: R+1.4; 2022: D+6.8 SOURCED
  • Projected electorate composition: D+2 (adjusted D+6); Senate estimate incl. independents: Cooper ~D+12.2 (range D+11 to D+13) ANALYST

Source: G. Elliott Morris, Strength In Numbers, 1 Nov (source), as of 1 Nov 2026. Caveat from the source: party registration and primary history are not vote choice, and Election Day voting usually narrows the early-vote gap. Shown for context only; these figures are not an input to the Catalyst forecast.