Florida Governor

Forecast summary and early-vote context.

View FL-GOV chart on the forecast

D 15.1% · R 84.9%Catalyst win chance ANALYST
Likely R
77.5%Governor majority: Democratic (Republican 13.3%, 25–25 tie 9.2%) ANALYST

Catalyst forecast v2.2, as of 2026-11-02. Tipping-point share = share of simulations in which this race supplies the decisive seat. Rater consensus from published ratings. Methodology and sources.

Early vote

  • Early voters by party registration: R+2.5, vs R+7.2 at the same point in the prior cycle SOURCED
  • Projected electorate composition: R+11.6 (preliminary) ANALYST

Source: G. Elliott Morris, Strength In Numbers, 1 Nov (source), as of 1 Nov 2026. Caveat from the source: party registration and primary history are not vote choice, and Election Day voting usually narrows the early-vote gap. Shown for context only; these figures are not an input to the Catalyst forecast.