Georgia Senate
Forecast summary and early-vote context.
97.5%Catalyst Democratic win chance ANALYST
Safe D
Safe D
68.3%Senate control: Democratic (Republican 31.7%) ANALYST
Catalyst forecast v2.2, as of 2026-11-02. Tipping-point share = share of simulations in which this race supplies the decisive seat. Rater consensus from published ratings. Methodology and sources.
Early vote
- Early voters by primary-vote history: R+3.1, vs R+4.3 at the same point in the prior cycle SOURCED
- Projected electorate composition: D+2.2; early ballots for Ossoff estimated D+7 to D+12 ANALYST
Source: G. Elliott Morris, Strength In Numbers, 1 Nov (source), as of 1 Nov 2026. Caveat from the source: party registration and primary history are not vote choice, and Election Day voting usually narrows the early-vote gap. Shown for context only; these figures are not an input to the Catalyst forecast.