{"as_of":"2026-10-28","sources":{"wiki":{"name":"Wikipedia, “2025–2026 United States redistricting” (tracker compiling official actions and court rulings)","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_United_States_redistricting","as_of":"2026-10-28","short":"Wikipedia tracker"},"wiki2024":{"name":"Wikipedia, “2024 United States House of Representatives elections” (certified results)","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections","as_of":"2026-10-28","short":"Wikipedia (2024 results)"},"downballot":{"name":"The Downballot, “How the midterms will determine the next phase of the redistricting wars”","url":"https://www.the-downballot.com/p/how-the-midterms-will-determine-the","as_of":"2026-10-28","short":"The Downballot"},"kondik":{"name":"Sabato’s Crystal Ball (Kyle Kondik), “The 2026 House Map is No More Favorable to Republicans than the 2018 Map was”","url":"https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-2026-house-map-versus-2018/","as_of":"2026-07-30","short":"Sabato’s Crystal Ball"},"callais":{"name":"Louisiana v. Callais, No. 24-109 (U.S. Apr. 29 2026); CRS Legal Sidebar LSB11431","url":"https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/LSB11431","as_of":"2026-05-14","short":"Louisiana v. Callais / CRS"},"prop50":{"name":"Wikipedia, “2025 California Proposition 50”","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_California_Proposition_50","as_of":"2026-10-28","short":"Wikipedia (Prop 50)"},"nbc":{"name":"NBC News, “How Democrats could win the House, how Republicans could hold on”","url":"https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/house-majority-math-democrats-win-republicans-scenarios-rcna604404","as_of":"2026-10-25","short":"NBC News"}},"redraws":[{"st":"TX","name":"Texas","status_2026":"in_effect","drawer":"Republican legislature","method":"Mid-decade legislative redraw at the President’s urging (PLANC2333)","legal":"Federal panel blocked it Nov. 18 2025; Supreme Court stayed that 6–3 on Dec. 4 2025. Map in use.","old_r":25,"old_d":13,"design_shift":5,"targets":"5 Democratic-held seats (Houston, Dallas, South Texas)"},{"st":"CA","name":"California","status_2026":"in_effect","drawer":"Democratic legislature, ratified by voters","method":"Prop 50 (64.4%–35.6%, Nov. 4 2025) temporarily replaced the commission map through 2030","legal":"In use.","old_r":9,"old_d":43,"design_shift":-5,"targets":"5 Republican-held seats"},{"st":"MO","name":"Missouri","status_2026":"blocked","drawer":"Republican legislature","method":"Mid-decade redraw (Sept. 28 2025) splitting Kansas City’s 5th district","legal":"Blocked for 2026 by the Missouri Supreme Court; referendum (Prop A) on the November 2026 ballot decides 2028.","old_r":6,"old_d":2,"design_shift":1,"targets":"MO-5 (Cleaver)"},{"st":"NC","name":"North Carolina","status_2026":"in_effect","drawer":"Republican legislature (no governor veto over maps)","method":"Mid-decade redraw (Oct. 22 2025)","legal":"In use.","old_r":10,"old_d":4,"design_shift":1,"targets":"NC-1 (Davis)"},{"st":"OH","name":"Ohio","status_2026":"in_effect","drawer":"Ohio Redistricting Commission (bipartisan vote)","method":"Required re-draw under the 2018 amendment; commission adopted a compromise map Oct. 31 2025","legal":"In use.","old_r":10,"old_d":5,"design_shift":2,"targets":"OH-1 and OH-9"},{"st":"UT","name":"Utah","status_2026":"in_effect","drawer":"State district court","method":"Court imposed a plaintiffs’ map after striking the legislature’s map under Prop 4 (Nov. 10 2025)","legal":"In use; a ballot effort to repeal Prop 4 failed (Mar. 2026).","old_r":4,"old_d":0,"design_shift":-1,"targets":"Creates one Salt Lake–based Democratic-leaning seat"},{"st":"VA","name":"Virginia","status_2026":"blocked","drawer":"Democratic legislature, via constitutional amendment","method":"Amendment approved by voters 51.6%–48.4% (Apr. 21 2026) to allow a 10–1 map","legal":"Voided 4–3 by the Virginia Supreme Court (May 8 2026); U.S. Supreme Court denied a stay. 2022 court map stays.","old_r":5,"old_d":6,"design_shift":-4,"targets":"4 Republican-held seats"},{"st":"FL","name":"Florida","status_2026":"in_effect","drawer":"Republican legislature and governor","method":"Mid-decade redraw (May 4 2026)","legal":"In use.","old_r":20,"old_d":8,"design_shift":4,"targets":"4 Democratic-held seats"},{"st":"TN","name":"Tennessee","status_2026":"in_effect","drawer":"Republican legislature","method":"Post-Callais redraw (May 7 2026) splitting Memphis","legal":"In use.","old_r":8,"old_d":1,"design_shift":1,"targets":"TN-9 (Cohen), a Black-majority Memphis seat"},{"st":"LA","name":"Louisiana","status_2026":"in_effect","drawer":"Republican legislature","method":"Redraw after Callais (May 29 2026) eliminating the second Black-majority district","legal":"In use.","old_r":4,"old_d":2,"design_shift":1,"targets":"LA-6"},{"st":"AL","name":"Alabama","status_2026":"in_effect","drawer":"Republican legislature","method":"Redraw (June 2 2026) after the post-Milligan injunction was lifted following Callais","legal":"In use.","old_r":5,"old_d":2,"design_shift":1,"targets":"AL-2, a court-ordered Black-opportunity seat"},{"st":"IN","name":"Indiana","status_2026":"failed","drawer":"Republican legislature","method":"Proposed redraw","legal":"Rejected by the state Senate Dec. 11 2025 (21 Republicans joined 10 Democrats).","old_r":7,"old_d":2,"design_shift":0,"targets":"—"},{"st":"MD","name":"Maryland","status_2026":"failed","drawer":"Democratic legislature","method":"House-passed redraw","legal":"Blocked by the state Senate leadership.","old_r":1,"old_d":7,"design_shift":0,"targets":"MD-1 (would have been)"},{"st":"KS","name":"Kansas","status_2026":"failed","drawer":"Republican legislature","method":"Proposed redraw targeting KS-3","legal":"Stalled (governor’s veto could not be overridden in time).","old_r":3,"old_d":1,"design_shift":0,"targets":"—"},{"st":"SC","name":"South Carolina","status_2026":"failed","drawer":"Republican legislature","method":"Proposed post-Callais redraw","legal":"Failed in the state Senate.","old_r":6,"old_d":1,"design_shift":0,"targets":"—"}],"effects":{"competitive_dissolved":{"value":13,"label":"SOURCED","src":"wiki","note":"Net competitive districts (decided by under 10 points in 2024) eliminated by the 2025–26 redraws."},"trump_districts_old":{"value":"230–205","label":"SOURCED","src":"downballot","note":"Districts Trump carried in 2024 under the 2024 lines."},"trump_districts_new":{"value":"234–201","label":"SOURCED","src":"downballot","note":"Districts Trump would have carried under the lines in force for 2026."},"median_old":{"value":3.1,"district":"AZ-1","label":"SOURCED","src":"downballot","note":"Trump margin in the median district, 2024 lines."},"median_new":{"value":4.5,"district":"WI-1","label":"SOURCED","src":"downballot","note":"Trump margin in the median district, 2026 lines."},"median_new_kondik":{"value":4.9,"label":"SOURCED","src":"kondik","note":"Kondik’s figure for the 2026 median district (July 2026, before some final changes)."},"national_2024":{"value":1.5,"label":"SOURCED","src":"nbc","note":"Trump’s 2024 national popular-vote margin."},"share_r_intent":{"value":44,"label":"SOURCED","src":"downballot","note":"Share of all House districts in states whose map was drawn to favor Republicans."},"share_d_intent":{"value":26,"label":"SOURCED","src":"downballot","note":"Share in states whose map was drawn to favor Democrats."},"dem_redraw_states_2028":{"value":12,"label":"SOURCED","src":"downballot","note":"States where Democrats could redraw before 2028 (depending on Nov. 3 results)."},"gop_redraw_states_2028":{"value":16,"label":"SOURCED","src":"downballot","note":"States where Republicans control the process and could redraw for 2028."},"vra_seats_dismantled":{"value":3,"label":"ANALYST","src":"wiki","note":"Black-majority or court-ordered Black-opportunity districts eliminated after Callais (TN-9, LA-6, AL-2), counted from the tracker; NC-1 (about 40% Black) also targeted."}},"derived":{"design_net":{"r":15,"d":6,"label":"ANALYST","method":"Sum of each in-effect new map's designed seat shift (Wikipedia redistricting tracker, 2026-10-28). Blocked maps (MO, VA) excluded.","net_r":9}},"forecast":{"label":"ANALYST","as_of":"2026-10-28","source":"Catalyst House forecast","source_url":"../forecast/","p_control":0.87458,"median_dem_seats":227,"races":{"FL-07":{"p_dem":0.117,"band":"Likely R"},"FL-09":{"p_dem":0.127,"band":"Likely R"},"FL-14":{"p_dem":0.603,"band":"Tilt D"},"FL-22":{"p_dem":0.41,"band":"Tilt R"},"FL-25":{"p_dem":0.701,"band":"Lean D"},"NC-01":{"p_dem":0.73,"band":"Lean D"},"NC-11":{"p_dem":0.677,"band":"Lean D"},"OH-07":{"p_dem":0.419,"band":"Tilt R"},"OH-09":{"p_dem":0.628,"band":"Tilt D"},"SC-01":{"p_dem":0.188,"band":"Likely R"},"TX-15":{"p_dem":0.465,"band":"Toss-up"},"TX-34":{"p_dem":0.785,"band":"Lean D"},"TX-35":{"p_dem":0.421,"band":"Tilt R"},"VA-01":{"p_dem":0.369,"band":"Tilt R"},"CA-13":{"p_dem":0.916,"band":"Likely D"},"CA-45":{"p_dem":0.947,"band":"Safe D"},"IN-01":{"p_dem":0.942,"band":"Safe D"},"OH-01":{"p_dem":0.912,"band":"Likely D"},"OH-13":{"p_dem":0.918,"band":"Likely D"},"TX-28":{"p_dem":0.88,"band":"Likely D"},"VA-07":{"p_dem":0.944,"band":"Safe D"},"CA-48":{"p_dem":0.89,"band":"Likely D"},"VA-02":{"p_dem":0.774,"band":"Lean D"},"CA-22":{"p_dem":0.751,"band":"Lean D"},"AL-02":{"p_dem":0.213,"band":"Lean R"},"FL-13":{"p_dem":0.094,"band":"Likely R"},"FL-27":{"p_dem":0.124,"band":"Likely R"},"OH-10":{"p_dem":0.091,"band":"Likely R"},"OH-15":{"p_dem":0.095,"band":"Likely R"},"TX-23":{"p_dem":0.142,"band":"Likely R"},"FL-16":{"p_dem":0.079,"band":"Likely R"},"IN-05":{"p_dem":0.082,"band":"Likely R"},"KS-02":{"p_dem":0.056,"band":"Safe R"},"MO-02":{"p_dem":0.136,"band":"Likely R"},"NC-03":{"p_dem":0.073,"band":"Safe R"},"NC-13":{"p_dem":0.07,"band":"Safe R"},"TX-09":{"p_dem":0.067,"band":"Safe R"},"VA-05":{"p_dem":0.104,"band":"Likely R"},"CA-06":{"p_dem":0.927,"band":"Safe D"},"FL-12":{"p_dem":0.061,"band":"Safe R"},"MD-01":{"p_dem":0.046,"band":"Safe R"},"CA-21":{"p_dem":0.955,"band":"Safe D"}}},"geo":{"TX_old":{"label":"2024 map (used 2022–24)","source":"U.S. Census Bureau, cartographic boundary file cb_2024_us_cd119_500k","url":"https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/GENZ2024/shp/cb_2024_us_cd119_500k.zip","n":38},"TX_new":{"label":"2026 map (PLANC2333)","source":"Texas Legislative Council, Capitol Data Portal, PLANC2333 shapefile","url":"https://data.capitol.texas.gov/dataset/planc2333","n":38},"CA_old":{"label":"2024 map (commission)","source":"U.S. Census Bureau, cb_2024_us_cd119_500k","url":"https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/GENZ2024/shp/cb_2024_us_cd119_500k.zip","n":52},"CA_new":{"label":"2026 map (Prop 50 / AB 604)","source":"California Assembly Elections Committee, AB 604 congressional map shapefile","url":"https://aelc.assembly.ca.gov/proposed-congressional-map","n":52},"NC_old":{"label":"2024 map","source":"U.S. Census Bureau, cb_2024_us_cd119_500k","url":"https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/GENZ2024/shp/cb_2024_us_cd119_500k.zip","n":14},"NC_new":{"label":"2026 map (S.L. 2025-95)","source":"North Carolina General Assembly, S.L. 2025-95 shapefile","url":"https://www.ncleg.gov/Redistricting","n":14},"OH_old":{"label":"2024 map","source":"U.S. Census Bureau, cb_2024_us_cd119_500k","url":"https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/GENZ2024/shp/cb_2024_us_cd119_500k.zip","n":15},"OH_new":{"label":"2026 map (Commission, Oct. 31 2025)","source":"Ohio Redistricting Commission block-assignment file, dissolved over Census 2020 TIGER blocks","url":"https://redistricting.ohio.gov/maps","n":15},"MO_old":{"label":"Map in use for 2026 (2022 map)","source":"U.S. Census Bureau, cb_2024_us_cd119_500k","url":"https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/GENZ2024/shp/cb_2024_us_cd119_500k.zip","n":8},"UT_old":{"label":"2024 map (legislature)","source":"U.S. Census Bureau, cb_2024_us_cd119_500k","url":"https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/GENZ2024/shp/cb_2024_us_cd119_500k.zip","n":4},"FL_old":{"label":"2024 map","source":"U.S. Census Bureau, cb_2024_us_cd119_500k","url":"https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/GENZ2024/shp/cb_2024_us_cd119_500k.zip","n":28}},"dem_capacity":[]}